Sydney property market data, trends, forecasts

Sydney property market news

The Sydney property market has proved to be incredibly resilient over recent years. After a historic period of growth over the 2021 property boom that saw median values shoot up +25.3 per cent in just 12 months, Sydney house prices corrected at a sharp rate according to CoreLogic data. 2023 saw a sudden and unexpected turnaround, though, as home values returned to near-peak levels. Now, in 2024, things are moving at a far more gradual pace.

Sydney property prices - October 2024

Rising interest rates were the leading driver of the correction phase in a city where affordability has been stretched to the limit, and both sellers and buyers have been acting with a level of caution until there is more clarity about when rates will settle. The high-rate environment has taken some heat out of the market in 2024 but hopes for rate cuts to revive growth are on the horizon. 

Compared to 12 months prior, new listings for October were up +5.2 per cent in Sydney while total listings were up +7.1 per cent, showing that seller activity has ramped up in the second half of 2024. Sales volumes got a major +8.4 per cent boost year on year in October, demonstrating that buyers are still out there in the market.

Currently, Sydney's median days on market (DOM) has settled around 32 for the quarter, up from 28 in October 2023.

House prices in Sydney

The 2021 property boom saw Sydney house prices surge to record highs before reaching their peak early in 2022. Detached housing lost significant value rapidly since that point, but surprisingly strong and consistent growth returned over 2023. Gains have eased back in 2024, though.

Sydney house prices - October 2024

The median house price in Sydney dipped by -0.1 per cent in October 2024, creating a consistent cooling trend that's put quarterly gains into negative territory of -0.1 per cent. Annual price changes remain positive at +3.9 per cent but that figure continues to decline.

Top 5 Sydney suburbs for first home buyers - houses

Sydney's median house price is still incredibly high, so affordability is hard to come by for first home buyers. Here are some of our top picks for Sydney suburbs where you can buy well below the median house price. 

Top Sydney suburbs under $1 million house price

Unit prices in Sydney

Unlike houses, the median unit price in Sydney grew at a more measured rate through the 2021 boom as the pandemic drove a ‘race for space’ mentality amongst buyers. The good news for unit owners was that apartment prices then fell at a more gentle pace throughout the downturn — but, like houses, prices were on the rise again throughout 2023. Things have wound down somewhat in 2024 but units have been closely matching houses and are now, in fact, outperforming. 

Sydney unit prices - October 2024

Sydney's median unit price notched up by +0.1 per cent in October to just over $864,000. On a quarterly basis, that brings growth up to +0.7 per cent, while annual change is a solid +3.1 per cent. Bolstered demand for units due to rising immigration, renewed investor interest and fresh activity from first home buyers priced out of the house market or the extremely tight rental market helped to drive growth throughout 2023 and 2024. 

Top 5 Sydney suburbs for first home buyers - units

Units offer better affordability for first home buyers in Sydney, although median prices are still substantial. Here are some of our top picks for Sydney suburbs where you can buy well below the median unit price. 

Top Sydney suburbs under $800,000 unit price

Sydney property market forecast 2024-25

2023 was a year of two halves. Prices skyrocketed in the first six months of the year before easing off later on and drifting into 2024 with slower growth. So what are the big banks saying about what to expect for the remainder of the year and into 2025?

NAB's latest Sydney house price forecast now has Harbour City dwellings pushing up by +5.1 per cent in 2024 with +3.7 per cent to follow in 2025. 

Westpac's Sydney real estate forecast now sees similarly steady growth for 2024 at +5.0 per cent with +4.0 per cent to come in 2025.

Big four banks' Sydney home price forecasts 2024-25

Whether or not this growth can be achieved still largely depends on the supply and demand dynamic over the rest of the year. Interest rates had extensive impacts on the market and, while there is now a period of stability, the high rate environment is still causing stress for buyers and homeowners alike. 

Currently, the RBA sits at 4.35 per cent, a long way up from the emergency-level 0.1 per cent rate borrowers were enjoying until May 2022. The banks mostly expect there will be no further hikes, with rate cuts to begin in early 2025.

Big four banks' cash rate forecast 2024-25

Sydney house prices outperformed units throughout the rebound but units and more affordable houses could be well-placed to deliver stronger gains throughout 2024.

Units and entry-level houses are expected to appeal further to incoming investors and first home buyers as immigration has ramped up significantly, bringing additional demand to the rental market in particular.

What are industry experts saying?

Michael Yardney - Director of Metropole Property Strategists

"Despite more homes being listed for sale and rising prices making property less affordable, the Sydney property market is expected to keep steaming ahead over the balance of 2024 and well into 2025.

A slowdown in construction has hampered the supply of new housing, concentrating demand on existing properties.

Both buyer and seller confidence increased in the early part of this year, with the thought that potential rate cuts could boost borrowing capacity, giving buyers more money to spend.

While the high end of the Sydney property market led this new phase of the property cycle in 2023, more recently cheaper properties are recording stronger price growth."

Tim Lawless - Research Director at CoreLogic

"We’re now seeing a fairly broad-based, but so far, mild downturn. Sydney is still in the early phase of the downswing, so we’ll probably see more suburbs where house prices drop in the coming months.

The downturn in the top 25 per cent of the housing market, particularly in Sydney is clearly gaining some momentum.

House values in this segment had been falling since June last year and in the past two months alone, they declined by 1.1 per cent, which is nearly twice as fast compared to the previous two months

So, it doesn’t look like this trend is turning around. It seems like it’s actually accelerating."

Sydney house prices graphs and charts

CoreLogic's latest chart pack clearly shows the rapid acceleration, subsequent deceleration, and then rebound of the Sydney property market over the past four years.

The upswing during the 2021 boom was one of the most aggressive periods of growth in Australian history. The downturn was equally historic, with prices falling more than 13 per cent in 12 months, before the worm turned once again. 

Looking at the wider context of the past 30 years, though, prices in Sydney have skyrocketed. The below chart shows Sydney house prices surging well beyond every other capital city, particularly over the past four years.

When taken into the perspective of even the past decade, Sydney homeowners have experienced huge gains to their property values. 

Selling Sydney property

According to Domain, Sydney's auction clearance rate has broadly stabilised after climbing up from its low point of 48 per cent in winter 2022. Days on market (DOM) in Sydney has also risen as some heat has come out of the market in 2024.

Sydney property investment

The Sydney property market is looking promising for investors as prices remain well below peak levels, rental vacancies hover around record lows, asking rents continue to increase, and further demand is expected as population growth remains at historic levels. High interest rates have driven some investors out of the market, though, as ballooning mortgage repayments have outweighed higher rents in some cases.

Top 5 suburbs for Sydney investors

BuyersBuyers' latest Investor Special Report detailed some of the top suburbs where Sydney investors could find strong potential. 

BuyersBuyers' co-founder Pete Wargent explained that, thanks to immigration, "there will be a lot of demand for rentals which will bring investors back in. Most of the picks are driven with that dynamic in mind."

Top suburbs for investors to buy units in Sydney

The report noted that "the best opportunities in the unit market are set to be in the established housing market rather than for expensive new builds. Look for boutique apartment blocks with a high land value content and units with a point of scarcity, such as a view.

Looking to invest in Sydney property? 

• Check out our list of best suburbs to invest in Sydney for 2024
• Dig into some expert advice on where to find the top 10 suburb picks for Australian investors
• Find out the Sydney suburbs with the highest rental yield
• On a budget? Here are the top 10 cheapest suburbs to buy in Sydney