Home values climb 1.6% in Q1 2024 as momentum holds steady
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Australian property prices are on a consistent rise so far in 2024 as the national median home value hit yet another record high in March.
CoreLogic's latest report shows that the volatility of recent years seems to have levelled off while three states in particular are outperforming the rest.
Will 2024 continue to move at a predictable pace or could there be more market upsets on the horizon?
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National property prices: March 2024
Australia's median home value increased by +0.6 per cent last month, the same rate of growth seen in February.
That steady movement has seen national property prices jump +1.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 alone.
| Market | Month | Quarter | Annual | Median value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 0.3% | 0.9% | 9.6% | $1,139,375 |
| Melbourne | 0.0% | -0.2% | 3.2% | $778,892 |
| Brisbane | 1.1% | 3.0% | 15.9% | $817,564 |
| Adelaide | 1.4% | 3.3% | 13.3% | $734,173 |
| Perth | 1.9% | 5.6% | 19.8% | $703,502 |
| Hobart | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | $649,097 |
| Darwin | -0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | $498,433 |
| Canberra | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.9% | $838,976 |
| Combined capitals | 0.6% | 1.5% | 9.7% | $848,475 |
| Combined regional | 0.6% | 1.8% | 6.0% | $620,032 |
| Australia | 0.6% | 1.6% | 8.8% | $772,730 |
The story between the capital cities is more-or-less the same, with Sydney and Melbourne recording little to no change over the month.
Brisbane and Adelaide on the other hand are continuing to climb at pace, and Perth's storming rise is looking unstoppable as another +1.9 per cent was added to values in March.
Hobart, Darwin and Canberra behaved much like Sydney and Melbourne with only minor changes to prices.
Again, regional markets broadly matched their capital city counterparts with overall growth of +0.6 per cent.
"Rate hikes, cost of living pressures and worsening housing affordability are all factors that have contributed to softer housing conditions since mid-last year," CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless explained.
"However, an undersupply of housing relative to demand continues to keep upward pressure on home values despite these headwinds."
Three key takeaways from the current market
Several clear trends have emerged so far this year that could give us some insight into what to expect from the months ahead.
Affordability is a big drawcard in 2024
Australian property prices have been rising at a much faster rate than incomes over the past few years. With the cost of living weighing heavily on people across the country, it's not surprising that more affordable cities and states are growing the quickest.
"The diversity in housing value outcomes can be explained by significant differences in factors like housing affordability, demand-side pressures from population growth and shortcomings in housing supply," Mr Lawless said.
"Focusing on the extreme growth conditions in Perth, despite such a rapid pace of capital gains, housing values remain relatively affordable compared with the larger capital cities.
"Housing remains in short supply and purchasing demand is still high due to interstate and overseas migration rates that are well above average."
The top end of the market is no longer leading in growth
Property upswings are often led by the most expensive quartile of the market but, according to CoreLogic, we're now seeing a shift towards what could be considered entry-level homes.
Between January and March this year, the bottom quartile (ie. the most affordable 25 per cent of properties in the market) grew by +3.1 per cent compared to gains of just +0.7 per cent for the top quartile.
Following on from his above comments, Mr Lawless explained that "With housing affordability becoming more challenging and borrowing capacity lower than a year ago, it’s no surprise to see demand being skewed towards the middle-to-lower end of the value spectrum."
Conditions are still challenging for renters and investors alike
Tenants across Australia have been doing it tough as asking rents have climbed as much as +15.9 per cent over the past 12 months and vacancy rates hold around historic lows.
For investors, rental yields have been increasing, but that's being counteracted by the high interest rate environment.
"A rise in rental yields alongside an expectation that housing values could rise and rental markets remain tight for an extended period of time is likely to be seen as an attractive opportunity for property investors," Mr Lawless said.
"However, with investor mortgage rates averaging in the mid 6 per cent range, it’s likely that most investors who are new to the market will be experiencing a cash flow loss, unless they are able to stump up a sizeable deposit."
What's next for Australian property?
Now that we're through the first quarter of 2024, a pattern of relative stability looks to have been established in each city and state market around the country.
Interest rates remain on hold and, while rates are still high, that's providing buyers and sellers with more certainty and confidence.
CoreLogic's report outlined that "The outlook for housing values remains positive amid a growing expectation that interest rates will start to fall later this year, providing a boost to borrowing capacity and consumer sentiment."
One factor that's continuing to push prices higher is an underlying imbalance between supply and demand.
"12,850 homes were approved for construction in January, roughly -25% below the decade average and well below the 20,000 average monthly run rate of approvals required to see 1.2 million homes in five years," Mr Lawless said.
"At the same time, the residential construction sector continues to run up against shortages in labour, high material costs and depressed profit margins."
Demand is still being boosted by a high rate of population growth. As long as supply continues to fall short of that demand, we're likely to keep seeing upwards pressure on home values.
But, with affordability as an ever-present issue across the country, we could see properties in lower price points attract more heated competition as the year unfolds.
