Will property prices continue to rise in 2024?
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With so many ups and downs for Australian property over the past few years, it's reasonable to wonder whether 2024 will bring any further momentum shifts.
Housing prices are currently at record highs and still rising according to CoreLogic data, but high interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainty remain a concern.
Find out what the experts are expecting for property prices in the year ahead.
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Forecasts look solid for the next 12 months
Australian home values got a very substantial +8.1 per cent boost over 2023, and the new year has started with the national median price breaking through to a fresh all-time high.
Broadly speaking, leading economists and forecasts are expecting further growth over 2024, just at a slower pace.
Big four banks' Australian property price forecasts 2024-25
| Bank | 2024 home value forecast | 2025 home value forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Westpac | 6.0% | 4.0% |
| NAB | 4.9% | 3.7% |
| ANZ | 3.0% | 4.5% |
| CBA | 5.0% | N/A |
The big four banks predict anywhere from +3 per cent to +6 per cent growth nationally —just over half of the gains we saw through last year.
Maree Kilroy, senior economist at Oxford Economics Australia, told the AFR that "the pace of growth is slowing as a result of the additional interest rate lift in November and rising total listing volumes, so this year would be softer in terms of price growth."
Individual city forecasts paint a diverse picture
While the national expectation is for steadier growth ahead, drilling down into the capital cities shows a bit more spread in terms of predicted performance.
A two-speed market has already been established early in 2024 with prices still rocketing in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide as momentum slows in Sydney, Melbourne and the smaller capitals.
Again looking to the big banks' forecasts, the year ahead shows a wide range of potential outcomes.
Big four banks' capital city property price forecasts 2024
| Bank | Sydney | Melbourne | Brisbane | Adelaide | Perth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Westpac | 6.0% | 3.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 10.0% |
| NAB | 4.7% | 2.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 9.9% |
| ANZ | 6-7% | 3-4% | 9-10% | 4.0% | 7-8% |
| CBA | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 1.0% | 5.0% |
Perth, 2023's runaway success, is predicted to once again be the standout performer over the next 12 months with up to +10 per cent growth.
Brisbane isn't far behind that weighty projection and Sydney is also believed to be set up for a strong year ahead. Softer but still-positive results are expected for Melbourne and Adelaide.
On the whole, none of the banks see any price declines on the horizon for any of the major capital cities. There are a number of market factors that will play into the real outcomes of the year, though.
What's going to keep prices rising?
For one thing, there's now a high level of faith among experts that interest rates have peaked and will remain steady for at least the first half of this year.
With some certainty and stability finally being baked into the market, buyers and sellers who may have been apprehensive in the rising rate environment are now expected to be able to move forward with greater confidence.
Then there's the matter of rate cuts which are expected to arrive later into 2024, potentially giving prices some extra support.
As CBA's head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, put it, "As soon as rates come down that is a tailwind for prices because as rates go down it increases borrower capacity."
Eleanor Creagh, senior economist at PropTrack, pointed to record levels of overseas migration as another key factor driving values up further.
"Population growth is likely to place continued upward pressure on home and rental prices while supply conditions remain constrained," she said.
There's some good news for renters and sellers alike in the form of a rebound in investor activity after a widespread exodus from the market in 2023.
Another PropTrack senior econimst, Paul Ryan, noted that "The shortage of rental properties and rapid growth in rents has started to encourage more investors into the market."
Overall, CoreLogic's head of residential research, Eliza Owen, echoed the sentiments laid out in the big banks' 2024 forecasts.
"The broad expectation for housing values in 2024 is that the market will still grow but at a slower rate than the 8.1 per cent observed in CoreLogic's Home Value Index in 2023," she said.
Thinking of selling in 2024?
If you're still looking to get in on the action this year, it's important to be as prepared as possible in order to cut through the competition and achieve a standout result.
Step 1: Understanding how your market is performing
Every market is different, and understanding your local market is fundamental to making the right selling decisions. Our guide to tracking market trends and data will help you to get a clear picture of how your market is performing and how that impacts you as a seller.
Step 2: Know what your property might be worth
Getting a free home value estimate is a great way to set a foundation for your selling expectations and begin planning the path forward.
Step 3: Get a no-obligation market appraisal from a top real estate agent
Understand what your property could sell for in the current market by speaking to the top-performing agents in your suburb. Comparing top agents in your area will help you find the perfect partner for your selling journey and move towards a successful result.
Step 4: Finally, get your property listing-ready
Taking a thorough approach to preparing your home for sale is another critical step. From cleaning, decluttering, painting and performing other cosmetic renovations to home staging, photography and marketing, getting your property to sale-ready condition is a must.
