Best suburbs to invest in Newcastle and the Central Coast in 2024

Looking to invest in the Newcastle real estate market, or researching the best suburbs on the Central Coast?

Here, we look at what is happening in these markets as well as expert tips for where to invest in these two locations.

Let’s start with an overview of how the Newcastle and Central Coast real estate markets performed in 2023.

What did the Newcastle and Central Coast real estate market look like in 2023?

As housing prices recovered from their post-Covid slump, CoreLogic’s Regional Market Update (Nov 2023) records Central Coast dwelling values rose +3.0 percent over the 12 months to October 2023, with a median value of $903,656. Newcastle-Maitland dwelling values rose +2.2 per cent, with a median value of $773,820. 

In comparison, prices gained +0.1 per cent across regional NSW with some coastal markets, including Byron Bay (-13.6 percent), Ballina (-4.7 percent) and Coffs Harbour (-2.6 percent), posting losses.

Todd Beckman, associate director of Herron Todd White Central Coast, says the Coast’s “entry-level” market for houses ($550,000 to $750,000) was the first to stabilise, showing particular resilience over 2023.

“Suburbs such as Hamlyn Terrace and Woongarrah in the north and Narara, Wyoming and Lisarow to the south experienced a steady growth of demand and benefitted from a lack of supply with listings at below average levels,” Todd says.

On the other hand, Todd says the “upgrader” end of the Central Coast property market ($1,000,000 to $2,500,000) underperformed, with house “values falling further than regional averages in some suburbs” including “Avoca Beach and Umina Beach in the south and Long Jetty and The Entrance North in the north.”                                                                                             

In Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, CoreLogic data revealed six suburbs entered the “million dollar club” as of November 2023, with 17 of the 80 suburbs analysed holding a median house value of $1 million or more. The newly minted million-dollar suburbs were New Lambton Heights ($1,016,095), New Lambton ($1,015,227), Hamilton ($1,036,396), Carrington ($1,011,123), Broadmeadow ($1,006,033) and Adamstown Heights ($1,028,135).

Newcastle real estate agent Patrick Skinner of Spillane Property says these suburbs are proving popular due to their relative affordability.

“Any of those fringe suburbs like Hamilton and Broadmeadow, they have really taken off,” Patrick says. “People get priced out of inner city suburbs and these offer quite a healthy price point, so everything around that $1 million to $1.2 million mark is where we’re finding a lot of demand.”

As to the rental market, both Newcastle and the Central Coast are experiencing a shortage of rental houses and units. In December, a REINSW survey found vacancy rates were at 1.9 per cent in Newcastle and 1.6 per cent on the Coast.

Newcastle and Central Coast property market predictions 2024

As of December 2023, Herron Todd White believes Newcastle house prices are at a peak and unit prices are declining, while Central Coast house and unit prices are approaching a bottom.

“The fall out of the latest rate rise is yet to seep into the Central Coast property market with its effects unknown for now,” says Todd Beckman. “It is expected to dampen confidence levels once more moving into 2024.”

As high interest rates have an impact, Newcastle real estate agent Tom Lemke of Wilton Lemke Stewart says some investors are selling up in Newcastle and more homebuyers are moving in.

“Half of what we have been selling in this last quarter has been investment stock and I think we will see more of that,” Tom says. “We will see more out-of-area buyers and a lot of first home buyers are moving from Sydney to Newcastle. I would say the bulk of the buyers in the market are first home buyers and downsizers. That will continue [in 2024].”

Tim predicts homebuyers will be drawn to Mayfield, Mayfield East, Georgetown and Kahibah as they “offer affordability in terms of land size and what you can get for your money.”

In the long term, both the Central Coast and Newcastle housing markets are set to benefit from the NSW Government’s Transport Oriented Development (TOD) Program. The NSW Government has picked 31 transport hubs where approvals for new residential unit buildings will be fast-tracked in 2024, including Gosford, Tuggerah and Wyong on the Central Coast and Adamstown, Booragul, Hamilton, Morrisett, Newcastle and Teralba in Greater Newcastle.

How are Newcastle and Central Coast house prices expected to change in 2024?

Propertology head of research Simon Pressley forecasts Central Coast property prices will rise between +2 and +5 per cent in 2024, saying the region will always be popular with Sydneysiders seeking “less congestion.”

In Newcastle, Allen Wargent Property Buyers predict that after house prices increased towards the end of 2023, the Newcastle property market will continue a slow recovery in 2024. Similarly, CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen says while the Newcastle region will continue seeing value over time, price growth could soften towards the second half of 2024.

“I would say 2024 for Sydney is looking like a bit of a downswing in the first half of the year and historically, we’ve seen the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie region perform to that cycle at a bit of a lag,” Eliza says. “With that in mind, if the trajectory for Sydney is to enter a bit of a downswing now, we might expect to see a little bit of softness in the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie market, mid to late 2024.”

While a modest pace of growth is forecast across the Central Coast and Newcastle regions, some suburbs are tipped to outperform others. REA includes Ettalong Beach, Kincumber, Hamilton, Maitland, Mayfield and New Lambton in its Hot 100 suburbs to watch in 2024 list as suburbs where experts believe prices could rise in the short- to medium-term.

Best suburbs in Newcastle and the Central Coast to invest in property in 2024

If you’re looking for the best Central Coast suburbs to invest in, Anthony Knight, principal buyer’s advocate for PropertyBuyer Central Coast, says alongside perennial favourites Avoca Beach, MacMasters Beach and Copacabana, these suburbs are on his watchlist:

• Kincumber 2251, median house price $1,010,000, down -5.6% over the past 12 months. Median unit price $625,000, down -8.4% over the past 12 months.
• Long Jetty 2261, median house price $1,14,000, down -0.9% over the past 12 months. Median unit price $770,000, up +12.6% over the past 12 months.
• Bateau Bay 2261, median house price $970,000, down -8.9% over the past 12 months. Median unit price $660,000, down -3.4% over the past 12 months.
• Warnervale 2259, median house price $980,000, up +22.5% over the past 12 months.

As to where to buy in Newcastle, local agent Joel Solado of Harcourts Newcastle predicts these suburbs are poised to take off as the city expands:

• Waratah 2298, median house price $795,000, down -8.6% over the past 12 months. Median unit price $631,500, up +7.0% over the past 12 months.
• North Lambton 2299, median house price $770,000, down -2.5% over the past 12 months.
• Mayfield 2304, median house price $815,500, up +0.4% over the past 12 months. Median unit price $608,000, down -7.2% over the past 12 months.
• Wallsend 2287, median house price $737,500, up +1.7% over the past 12 months. Median unit price $612,500, up +0.4% over the past 12 months.

(Data sourced from realestate.com.au)