Best areas to invest in Geelong, Torquay, and Lorne 2024

Looking to invest in real estate in Geelong, Torquay or Lorne?

While the pandemic “flight from the cities” is over, Geelong remains popular with buyers, with many suburbs seeing good price growth over the past year. Conditions are a bit slower on the Surf Coast, where regional Victoria’s most expensive property markets are feeling the effects of high interest rates and rising costs of living.

Let’s look closer at how the property markets in Geelong, Torquay and Lorne fared in 2023 and what experts are forecasting for the year ahead.

What did the property market in Geelong, Torquay, and Lorne look like in 2023?

As Victoria’s largest regional city, the Geelong property market is different to the Surf Coast towns of Torquay and Lorne. Homebuyers have long sought out Geelong for its relative affordability, situated around an hour’s train ride from Melbourne. While population growth surged during the Covid pandemic, Geelong continues to attract Victorians seeking a move to the regions.

According to data from realestate.com.au, Geelong house prices gained +9.5 per cent from February 2023 to January 2024, to a median house price of $977,500. In comparison, Melbourne house prices gained +67.4 per cent, for a median house price of $961,000. While the difference in house price growth may seem pronounced, it’s worth noting this is based on 12 Melbourne house sales over the period, while 53 houses sold in Geelong.

Around the city, there were some standout performers, with Hamlyn Heights and Thomson two of regional Victoria’s top suburbs for house price growth in CoreLogic’s Best of the Best (Dec 2023) report. House prices in Hamlyn Heights gained +5.1 per cent over the year to September for a median of $780,999, while in Thomson, house prices rose +4.3 per cent for a median of $742,106.

Further south on the Surf Coast, where holiday or second homes comprise a significant portion of the market, Domain data shows house prices in this region declined -10.2 per cent over the December quarter of 2023, for a median house price of $1,300,000.

According to realestate.com.au, house prices in Torquay were down -9.3 per cent over 2023, with houses taking a median 64 days to sell. Approximately 45 minutes down the Great Ocean Road in the town of Lorne, the median price dropped -12.3 percent as houses sat for a median 79 days on market. Despite these relatively sluggish performances, Torquay and Lorne remain amongst regional Victoria’s most expensive suburbs, with a median house price of $1,225,000 and $1,809,500 respectively.

Torquay, Lorne, and Geelong property forecast 2024

While pandemic-era sea-changers drove strong price growth, experts believe this trend has since reversed, with many properties bought during COVID lockdowns now returning to the market.

“The flight to the regional areas is at an end,” Domain chief of research and economics Nicola Powell says. “People moved there because they could work remotely, but now we’re seeing a new era where businesses are wanting people to spend two to three days in the office, so people are moving closer to the city.”

In Geelong, local real estate agents Kardinia Property report that homebuyers continue to move from Melbourne, seeing it as an affordable outer suburb within commuting distance of the capital. Victorian agents Barry Plant agree, saying while there’s been a rise in real estate listings in Geelong, this is being matched by “keen interest.”

On the Surf Coast, Great Ocean Road Real Estate director Ian Stewart predicts the Lorne real estate market is in for a quiet first half of 2024 after a slow summer. With more holiday homes coming up for sale, he says high interest rates, new taxes and the rising cost of living mean holiday homebuyers are thinking twice about buying in the region.

In contrast, One Agency Surf Coast senior sales consultant Olivia Swann believes the increase in investment properties hitting the market in 2023 contributed to “an impressive surge in market momentum” that’s set to continue in 2024. According to Olivia, a lift in property sales and demand for rental homes is keeping the market dynamic.  

“[In] 2024, the Surf Coast real estate market appears poised for further evolution and growth,” Olivia says. “Despite challenges, the market has demonstrated resilience and adaptability.”

How are Torquay, Lorne, and Geelong house prices expected to change in 2024?

NAB predicts Victorian house prices will gain +0.2 per cent over the next year and +1.9 per cent over the next two years, describing high interest rates and price levels as “significant” restraints for buyers in Victoria.  

Domain gives a slightly higher figure, forecasting house prices in regional Victoria to gain +2 to +4 per cent, with affordability constraints, increased migration and stretched rental conditions shaping property markets in 2024.

In Geelong, Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder says the strong performance of some suburbs maintains the city's position as a market leader, predicting that “certainly in the early part of 2024, we’re going to see prices continue to nudge upwards.” Two top-performing suburbs Terry highlights are Armstrong Creek (median house price $680,000) and Charlemont (median house price $616,000).

What's the Torquay, Lorne, and Geelong apartment market like?

While houses dominate in all three locations, apartments in some Geelong suburbs have doubled in value in under ten years, and continue to attract attention from buyers seeking to put lifestyle at the top of their wish lists.

According to realestate.com.au, unit prices in Geelong gained +6.0 per cent over 2023, for a median unit price of $705,000. Median rents increased +8.9 percent to $490 per week, with a median rental yield of 3.9 per cent.

In Torquay, units fared slightly better than houses, with prices dipping -0.8 per cent to a median unit price of $942,500. Median rent sits at $540 per week, which increased +1.9 per cent over the past twelve months.

Flipping the usual script, apartments in Lorne had a surprisingly stellar year compared to houses, gaining +55.5 per cent for a median unit price of $1,337,500. While apartments in Geelong and Torquay have dropped slightly from price peaks reached in 2023, median unit price in Lorne is at its highest since hitting the million mark in 2021.

Best suburbs to invest in Geelong, Torquay, and Lorne in 2024

The Hotspotting Top 10 National Best Buys report names the City of Geelong as one its top 10 areas for investment across the nation. For the best suburbs in Geelong to invest in houses, Hotspotting singles out these suburbs as popular with buyers, with data from Domain showing good long-term growth:

• Lara, median house price $705,000, up +32.8% over the past 5 years.
• Highton, median house price $887,500, up +31.4% over the past 5 years.
• Ocean Grove, median house price $990,000, up +41.4% over the past 5 years.
• Armstrong Creek, median house price $671,000, up +25.4% over the past 5 years.
• Grovedale, median house price $660,000, up 32.8% over the past 5 years.

Around the Surf Coast region, data from CoreLogic reveals these inland areas remain relatively affordable with a median house price under $1 million:

• Birregurra, $707,500 median house price, +15.28% average annual growth.
• Inverleigh, $910,000 median house price, +13.6% average annual growth.
• Mount Duneed, $710,000 median house price, +5.05% average annual growth.
• Winchelsea, $635,000 median house price, +10.24% average annual growth.